Irish Reunification Is Inevitable
The island of Ireland, as I’m sure most of you are aware, is divided between the independent Republic of Ireland in the South, and the UK constituent state of Northern Ireland in the North. Long have there been calls by the Republic to unify the island into a single state, but several factors have consistently stood in the way, namely regarding religion, politics, and culture.
Northern Ireland simply isn’t as Irish as the rest of the island, and this would make perfect sense given its history of settlement by the English and Scots. The Plantation of Ulster, as this colonization effort was known, radically changed the demographic composition of Northern Ireland, or rather Ulster, Anglicizing and Protestantizing the previously Celtic and Catholic population into a culture more compatible and receptive to British rule. To this day a plurality of Northern Irish consider themselves British rather than Irish or Northern Irish, but it must be emphasized that this plurality was once a majority, and Britain’s grip upon North Irish culture today is no longer what it once was. Times are changing, and if the trends of the last few decades are any indication, it would appear they are changing in favor of Irish unification.
Over the years there’s been an essential repatriation of ancestrally Anglo and Scottish North Irish back to the larger island of Great Britain; being drawn there by the richer opportunities, livelier communities, and a greater sense of relevancy. Those who don’t identify strongly with Northern Ireland see it as merely the smallest, and most fringe part of the United Kingdom, thus, why continue to reside there instead of the British mainland?
Inversely, Northern Ireland has seen significant immigration trickle in from their Southern border, and gradually occupy large areas of the South, dramatically altering the political and religious character of that region to where Protestants, once an overwhelming majority in Northern Ireland, have now been surpassed by Catholics in several towns, cities, and communities, and are projected to have already been surpassed nationally, something that will be revealed once the 2021 census results are released within a year or two.
Election maps also reveal this encroaching influence from the South, and the receding of North Irish power further into the North-East. Even the the Brexit referendum reflects this trend of North-East Ulster voting in line with the majority of England, while the South voted in favor of remaining in the EU with the Irish Republic.
These trends alone indicate that Northern Ireland will eventually be reclaimed by a majority Catholic and Celtic Irish Population, who will push Ulster toward total reunification with the Republic, something the Republic is almost certain to consent to, even if it comes at a temporary financial loss, or demands political compromise with Britain.
We also need to consider whether or not Britain will consent to this outcome. The answer to that is a resounding YES.
As a whole, Ireland’s existence within the United Kingdom provided economic opportunity thanks to its vast and fertile lands, as well as security by removing them as a potential ally to other rival powers within Europe, but with only Northern Ireland, Britain finds itself with an arrangement that is more burdensome than beneficial. The relationship between the two at present is no longer reciprocal, and is heavily one-sided in favor of Northern Ireland, who takes in more government money from the rest of the Union than it contributes, more than any other UK region mind you; and this trend has persisted for several decades. It has the smallest population and economy of the several UK regions, leaving many British citizens to question why their tax dollars should continue to be invested in Ireland at an apparent loss, with nothing else to show for it.
As the favorability of reunification rises within Northern Ireland, so to will we see Britain begin courting the Republic of Ireland as a reliable ally and partner, recognizing that Northern Ireland is drifting further away from the UK, and that all parties will be better off in such a realignment. Thus, Britain would be trading in the bargaining chip that is Northern Ireland for continued stability and cooperation within the Isles. That being said, there does exist the possibility that such a realignment could spark a second period of armed resistance within Ulster reminiscent of the Troubles, led by Ulster Loyalists and Nationalists determined to either reunite with the UK, or break-off as an independent entity.
