What If Rome Never Fell? | Alternate History
While the name of Rome has come to be synonymous with imperial might and grandeur, it has, inversely, also come to be identified with decline and collapse. Some have taken the story of Rome’s rise and fall to be a sobering reminder to the fragility of even humanity’s greatest societies, that all empires must be doomed to fail, and often by their own actions, both directly and not.
Rome as an empire was born from humble beginnings, a kingdom housed within the confines of a mere city, which managed to successfully conquer, compel, and consolidate it’s neighboring rivals into the early Roman Republic. By this point, little more than a dot in the center of the western Italian coast, but over time expanding further, taking more of the Western shoreline before advancing to the Eastern Coast, bringing the whole of the Peninsula under total Roman rule.
Imperial-level opponents like the Carthaginians and Macedonians would soon come to contest Rome’s growing presence, and claim to dominance in the Mediterranean, but eventually they too would succumb to Rome’s unbound might, adding their historic, and strategically valuable lands to Rome’s own.
And by eliminating it’s two chief rivals in the Mediterranean, Rome had primed itself to make of that sea it’s own personal lake; annexing the whole of Greece, breaching Anatolia, piercing through the Levant, Colonizing North Africa, and finally toppling Egypt, bringing an end to the age of the Roman Republic, and ushering in the Roman Empire.
Under it’s first Emperor, Augustus, Rome would experience decades of development, achievement, and reorganization, but even this early on, the Empire would experience a hefty loss at the hands of the Germans, having three whole legions wiped out in a Germanic ambush orchestrated by a believed ally of Rome, a German tribal prince known as Arminius. This would foreshadow centuries of Roman-Germanic conflicts which would continue to rock the empire, and ultimately deal the killing blow to Western Rome.
The reign of the following Emperor, Tiberius, though not characterized by dramatic improvements, as had been seen under Augustus, did emphasize a period of consolidating and securing all that which was previously achieved. That said, the reign of Tiberius would play host to some of the first major conspiracies within the empire against the Emperor and his heirs, notably under the supervision of Praetorian Prefect, Sejanus. Though the Praetorian Guard was established to serve as the Emperor’s elite bodyguard, Sejanus had seen them reformed into a powerful political entity which arguably came to have greater power over the Emperor than the Emperor held over them, setting the stage for at best what amounted to a shadow government, and at worst, an impulsive and destabilizing force which would not merely play a role in the assassination of the following emperor, Caligula, and the rise of his successor, Claudius, but further yet, continue if not accelerate this pattern of interfering in Roman politics and Imperial succession for much of the Empire’s future.
Succeeding Claudius would be Nero, an emperor who, though hated by the upper-classes, was adored by the wider-public for his larger than life presence, dedication to athletics and arts, as well his public developments funded by taxing the wealthy. But when the Great Fire of Rome broke out, scorching the city for over a week, so did Nero find the treasury without proper funds to repair the damages. Tributes were imposed on the provinces, yet even still, money fell short; with few alternatives, Nero found himself forced to devalue the Empire’s currency, beginning a slippery-slope of Emperors gradually chipping away the value of Roman coins anytime they went even slightly over-budget, believing it’d only be a matter of time until new land was conquered, bringing in more gold and silver, but that wouldn’t be the case. Prices, of course, went up, and Roman soldiers continually demanded higher pay in response to this inflation, sowing the seeds for restlessness within their ranks; some emperors, like Caracalla, expanded rights and citizenship within the empire as to increase the taxable population, but even still, this would prove insufficient, while awarding powers to communities who either held little loyalty to Rome, had clashing interests with the empire, or simply didn’t understand the functions of Roman government.
Year after year, these issues of disloyalty within the empire, the instability and insecurity of Roman leadership, economic decline, imperial stagnation, and introduction of foreign elements would soften Rome to the point it became unable to properly defend itself from the growing Germanic hordes and Eastern Empires. Prospects of wealth, and the strategic value of the East would eventually drive leadership away from Rome proper, instead setting up shop in the city of Byzantium, unwittingly leaving the old capitol to the vultures…but what if that changed? What if in an alternate timeline the Western Roman Empire never collapsed?
It’s a question that could lead well into several different answers, chiefly because there are numerous times and ways Western Rome could have turned itself around, not to mention an abundance of theories on what was central to Rome’s collapse in the first place. As we’ve just gone over, there are several layers to Rome’s decline, including far more complex and minute factors which spawned as a result of the main four, which we’ll just simplify as Political, Social, Economic, and Military troubles.
Perhaps a later emperor during what would have been Rome’s final years, succeeds in keeping the city and Italian peninsula safe from barbarian invasions, allowing it to survive in a limited form, or perhaps Emperor Majorian’s sabotaged plan to to re-secure Carthage and North Africa from the Vandals succeeds, keeping for Rome a great source of wealth and food which might have allowed the Empire to rebound in the span of only a few decades. Maybe if the strongly anti-German emperor Valentinian hadn’t suddenly died, he may prevent his co-emperor, Valens, from inviting the Goths into Rome’s borders the following year, Valens doing so in the hopes he may use them as soldiers, only for the Goths, and those they brought along with them, to turn against the Romans. Possibilities present themselves nearly every decade, but they’re not quite perfect; most being either unsustainable in the long-term, or siphoning off resources from other necessary fields.
So for this scenario, we’re going stop Rome’s main issues at the root. It’s going to require a few very specific conditions be met, but again, this is a bit of a tall order. This means Sejanus never comes to power, and the Praetorian Guard remains both loyal and limited in it’s capabilities for the security of the Emperor. The Great Fire of Rome never happens, thus Nero isn’t forced to devalue the currency, and setting a precedent for future emperors, and finally, Germania is not only successfully conquered, but held, developed, and assimilated into the empire, neutralizing the tribes which would become the Franks and Alemanni, shortening Rome’s border to make it more easily defendable, and thus free-up additional soldiers, and bring into the empire a new generation of slaves to bolster Roman labor, delaying any shortages for at least a few more decades.
That said, Rome will still suffer from invasions and attacks at the hands of the Eastern Germanic tribes, economic downturns brought on by a faulty tax system, reliance on slaves, and outbreak of the Antonine and Cyprian plagues, as well as face political upheaval brought on by the loss of an emperor or contention for the throne, however, Rome will be stronger, more stable, and afforded more time to solve it’s economic woes.
Additionally, because Rome’s issues are fixed early on, it becomes slightly different than the Rome we knew: Firstly, if we assume Germanicus was allowed to continue his conquest of Germania, this is likely to keep him away from whatever ended his life once he was reappointed to the East, be it poison or illness, Germanicus may well live on, only growing in popularity among the military and populace, earning him additional favor as Tiberius’s successor. Tiberius, however, may also seek to secure the throne for his own biological son, Drusus; Germanicus only having been made Tiberius’s heir at the request of Augustus. In our world, Germanicus died in the East, possibly poisoned by Tiberius, with Drusus dying not long after, likely poisoned by Sejanus; if both survive, we might expect a power-struggle for the throne to ensue, even if Germanicus still passed away early; his wife, Agrippina, just as in our world, would no doubt contend against Drusus on behalf of her sons. Alternatively, the two could just as easily have taken the throne together. See, Augustus, before adopting Tiberius as his heir, had intended to be succeeded by two co-emperors, but they had both died early, Tiberius, as a condition to his becoming the new successor, was to adopt Germanicus, and allow him to reign alongside Drusus, the two seemingly showing equal promise, and mirroring each-others lives appeared ideal candidates for the positions. Given this is an optimistic alternate take on Rome, we’ll assume that’s precisely what happens, and joint-rule is established.
It’s not perfectly clear who would succeed Drusus and Germanicus, but chances are it wouldn’t be Caligula and Claudius who seem to have only come to power in the absence of any alternatives; but because the role of Emperor, or rather now, Emperors, is more stable, far more effective, and longer-reigning leaders can be selected, and prepared ahead of time, ensuring that Rome be guided by the best, and not merely those most willing to enrich the Praetorians and Elites.
The acquisition of Germania makes it’s development a demanding project, one which delays any attempted invasion of Britannia for perhaps another century, as efforts are focused on taming the wild forests and populations along the Roman border, making extensive use of it’s timber, iron, and copper resources.
Fast forward to the mid-second century AD, and we’d find Rome expanding it’s eastern borders, having subjugated Dacia, and defeated the Parthians in a major war, likely sparked by disputes over Armenia. In our world, Rome had been progressively more successful in it’s campaigns against Parthia, in part due to the Parthian’s own growing instability. The Empire finally came close to toppling Parthia during the campaigns of Trajan around 115 AD, but ultimately fell back, and returned lost lands to Parthia; in this alternate world, thanks to the added strength and stability of Rome, the domain of Mesopotamia falls, and remains under Roman control, bringing onto the Empire a bounty of wealth, and greater access to eastern trade. The early establishment of joint-rule also allows for better governance of Rome’s wide-reaching lands, preventing any chance of usurpations or moves for secession while the Emperor was preoccupied with the war effort.
If Rome aimed to deal the killing blow to Parthia, it could easily conquer it’s way along the gulf-coast, leaving inner Parthia vulnerable to other neighboring powers. Either way, Rome would have opened itself up to increased trade with the East, introducing to the empire a number of exotic goods and philosophies, while spreading it’s own culture into Asia, unfortunately this exchange wouldn’t be exclusively positive, as along with Eastern products, Rome would also expose itself to Eastern plagues earlier on, potentially spreading them further across the empire. This would deal a blow to Roman commerce, and likely lead to a slowing of trade with the east, but probably no more so than had occurred in our own world, and we could certainly expect the empire to rebound. Optimistically, this could encourage Rome to tighten it’s Eastern border in Asia as to prevent the spread of the plague, something which may prove valuable if and when the Sassanids arose in this alternate world.
Without the destabilizing abrupt changes of leadership brought on by the Praetorian Guard, the threat posed by the western Germanic tribes, and the debasement of the Roman currency, there is no crisis of the third century, only another bout with plague, and a successful war against the Goths, this period, at worst, seeing the emperors or their heirs succumb to plague, creating a brief succession crisis, but one which would likely be resolved with few issues.
With it’s present lands secure, Rome might seek to establish a presence on Britannia, from which to keep in check the tribes which would on occasion trouble Roman ships or even attempt to raid the Gallic coast. Rome’s delay in invading Britannia would have given the southern British tribes time to grow in strength, making them more formidable a power than had been faced in our world, slowing or even halting Roman expansion deeper into the island. With the coasts secured, and access to Britannia’s resources opened up, Rome might feel satisfied to wash it’s hands of the region, and solidify a border in the south, chalking the northern lands up as not worth the effort. Although interactions such as this seem minor, as was the case for Germania, civilizations left just outside Roman borders are granted the privilege of being exposed to Roman tactics and technology, whilst retaining their culture in full; this, in essence, primes such civilizations to become all the more resistant to Roman conquest, but more importantly, to become stronger than their own rivals further inland, allowing for the creation of larger non-Roman kingdoms over time.
On that note, the Eastern Roman frontier would soon see waves of Germanic tribes seeking refuge within Roman territory after having been displaced by the mounting Goth population; unable to pierce the Roman border, these displaced Germans would be forced to either fight or submit to the Gothic hoards, which were coming to dominate the region of Scythia until the rise of the Hunnic Empire drove them too against Rome’s unbreakable Eastern Wall.
Rome might compromise to support the Goths against the rapidly expanding Huns, allowing the Goths to establish a fortified border and act as something of a buffer state between them and the Huns; in doing so, leading major Gothic settlement to remain in North Eastern Europe instead of migrating to Iberia and South Western Europe as it had in our world.
The continued strength of the Roman West, and lack of demographic change, also gives greater authority and number to adherents of Roman tradition, thus reinforcing the traditional Roman faith, though potentially still shifting toward a more monotheistic character such as that of the Sol Invictus cult. In our world, the heightened prosperity of the East contributed to the spread of Christianity, seeing it’s influence rise not merely on account of a faster growing population, but also as it captured the interest of prominent politicians who had moved to the East.
While Christianity still becomes a significant faith within Rome as a whole, Traditional Roman practices carry on strong throughout much of the West specifically. If Christianity did eventually come to greater prominence, it would need to further adapt itself to the Roman Pagan customs, creating something slightly different from the Christianity we know today.
The rise of Christianity to prominence in the East, as well as it’s proximity to Arabia would bring it into fierce competition with the Islamic Caliphate once it came into existence. The Byzantines, or East Roman Empire, although it may be neglected the additional attention it had received in our world on account of what had been Western Rome’s decline, it would still likely be in an ideal place to hold it’s ground against the Caliphate, given that the Sassanids in Persia would be reduced to a minor threat earlier on, and the Empire as a whole had been in much greater shape. While the lands of the Levant, North Africa, Syria, and Mesopotamia remain within the East Greco-Roman cultural sphere, Islam does still succeed in spreading into Persia, central Eurasia, and India, likely reaching further than it ever had in our world, as resources exhausted in the West are now directed Eastward.
The growing cultural, religious, and lifestyle demands of the Western and Eastern halves of the empire, paired with the long-standing history of dual-leadership would lead them to become essentially sovereign from one another at some point, although still closely allied, with occasional bouts of rivalry. Seeking to retain the practice of joint-emperorship, the two empires may continue to select two emperors each for a total of four Roman Emperors across the West and East, a situation perhaps akin to the Tetrarchy of our world. A possible motivator for this division could be the outbreak of what was known as the Justinian Plague, an early outbreak of what would later become the black death some centuries later. Western Rome, seeing a pattern of plagues arising from the East before migrating West, might make the effort to close itself off from unrestricted travel and trade between he two realms, finally driving them their own separate ways.
Feudalism doesn’t arise by the same means in this alternate world, as the Roman central government remains capable of defending and governing it’s various territories, thus never forcing regional populations to become dependent upon local landlords for security; that said, Rome might come to develop a more thorough hierarchy through which it might better delegate commands and receive feedback from individual communities. The two Emperors of each empire additionally alleviate the stress that would otherwise be placed on the shoulders of a single ruler, making imperial management all the easier.
With feudalism skipped over, there is far more communication and trade between the Empire and outside lands, paving the way for new discoveries and inventions both of Rome’s own creation, and those introduced by it’s neighbors.
Rome remaining on the path of progress, gradually develops technologies which in our world wouldn’t have been seen for several more centuries: A high demand for faster trade leads Rome to finally expand on it’s naval capabilities, building bigger and faster ships now easily able to traverse the harsh Indian Ocean, and perhaps even the Atlantic should the Romans seek to contact China directly, of course, leading them to stumble upon the Americas instead. This might become the case if relations with the growing Islamic kingdoms of India became strained, seeing war regularly break out over denial of port and trade access. Western Rome, not spared the prejudice of these kingdoms, takes advantage of it’s Atlantic access to begin scouting a western route to Asia; Eastern Rome, not being awarded this privilege, may continue to war against the Muslims to regain access to the Indian ocean, from where it might attempt to reach further parts of Asia, perhaps stumbling upon Indonesia or Australia.
Islamic expansion would finally be halted around the year 1200 during the rise of the Mongol Empire, which, under Genghis Khan, would suppress a number of Islamic practices in it’s occupied lands, his successors, however, would warm up to, and even embrace Islamic practices, especially as they came closer to the Islamic heartland, however, given that much of the middle-east would be under East-Roman control, it’s quite possible some Mongol successor dynasties may also convert to Christianity as well before receding, having spread these adopted faiths to new lands.
The Mongol invasions would be followed not long after by another plague, THE plague actually, the black death, however, this outbreak would not be nearly as catastrophic as it had been in our world. For one, Western Rome’s increased skepticism with the East, and it’s history with plagues would have motivated additional precautions which at the very least could mitigate it’s spread; if any region were to be hardest hit, it would be Eastern Rome, yet even here conditions remain preferable to those of our timeline. Roman hygiene standards were remarkably higher than those of the medieval kingdoms, the high-levels of organization would certainly help control the spread by keeping bodies off the streets, and sectioning off regions affected by the outbreak, not to mention the fact Rome has no doubt made a number of significant medical advancements by this point, ultimately turning factors in their favor.
By the turn of the following century, with the plague behind it, Rome would have weathered some of history’s greatest challenges and disasters, yet emerged from them undefeated, and greater than ever before, with it’s best years quite possibly still ahead of it. Eastern Rome would rise as a prospering trade empire, establishing small port colonies throughout the Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as the African coast, still playing the role of a hub between civilizations for exchange of goods, ideas, and cultures.
Western Rome, remaining true to it’s imperial warrior heritage, would not stumble upon China through it’s Atlantic excursions and become a trade empire as it’s brother state had, but instead find a land ripe for conquest, one so tempting in it’s challenge that the West couldn’t help but make of it a new Rome. Like China, Western Rome had come to be an enduring and massive state whose identity seemingly became synonymous with that of the entire continent itself, simply on account of it’s contributions and grandeur, but going further beyond this, the two Romes would become instrumental in shaping not merely the global West, but the East as well, reaching far beyond even that which the Mongols had achieved, bringing onto all they encountered the light of the Imperium Invictus, the Undefeated Empire.
